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High school · Sports Analytics

Calculate expected points without promising a result

Use probability-weighted outcomes and distinguish average scoring from a single attempt.

One selected lesson · Temporary, ungraded practice

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List outcomes and their units

Expected value is the sum of each possible outcome multiplied by its probability. In a simplified shot model, a make scores the stated point value and a miss scores zero. Thus expected points per attempt equal make probability times point value. A probability must lie between zero and one, and the probabilities of the listed exhaustive outcomes must sum to one. Percentages become decimals before multiplication.